Conclusions
Two congregations disbanded during the survey period; others have merged. Most "missions" remain unorganized, but are listed as "emerging." Sunshine and Madison Square have remarkable growth rates, especially compared to the rest of the denomination. These two congregations, along with Church of the Servant, are the fastest growing CR churches in the city. All three have organized since 1970.
Additionally, the three congregations organized in the 60s are all growing well, although at a lower rate. Of the six fastest growing churches, only one organized before 1960, Westview. Since Westview re-visioned and relocated in the early 60s, its place on this list is not surprising.
For the most part, churches established before 1960 maintain themselves. There are signs of a turn around for some congregations (Neland, Sherman Street, Oakdale Park), and signs of decline in traditionally strong churches (Alger Park, Plymouth Heights). Also, some churches are in a long-term decline (Grandville Avenue, Bethel, LaGrave, Boston Square).
There is a correlation between church growth and the proportion of non-professing members in a congregation.This is to be expected since most CR churches grow through Christian nurture more than evangelism. Youth ratio as a growth indicator shows a moderate correlation. While a significantly higher than average youth ratio leads to growth most of the time, and a significantly lower one (below 25%) usually leads to decline, the predictive value drops dramatically as we approach (±5%) the average.
There is some correlation between youth ratio and professions of faith. Since this is widely regarded as a sign of passage, profession of faith often occurs between the ages of 16 and 20. Taking the average as 18, we would expect 5.5% of non-professing members to take this step each year. Statistics 1976-90 follow:
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Reasons for this variation include fluctuations in the birth rate, delayed professions (some waiting until their 20s), and the slow, steady move of families to the suburbs. It would be enlightening to correlate these figures with statistics for suburban congregations, but that is beyond the scope of the present paper. There does not seem to be a significant correlation between the rate of profession and church growth.
It is wonderful to see many "inner city" congregations turn decline into growth. While Madison Square and Grace show new congregations thriving in old neighborhoods, seeing new growth in established churches in older neighborhoods (Oakdale Park, Neland Avenue, Sherman Street, Creston, and Twelfth Street) is a blessing.
Overall, the prospects for local congregations are encouraging. While a handful have not emerged from long term decline, the majority look healthy. As God continues to bless the work of his people, the dream of numerical growth in every congregation may become reality.
One thing which might help congregations would be a restructuring and re-visioning of the local classes. This will be the topic of chapter 4.
Go to index, go to chapter 2 or chapter 4.
Any comments? Email
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Copyright ©1992, 1996-2000 by Dan Knight.
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